A Review Of 2023 Stock Market Predictions

A Review Of 2023 Stock Market Predictions

“It’s hard to make predictions. Especially about the future.” That’s one of my favorite aphorisms attributed to Yogi Berra. At the beginning of every year hundreds of economists, strategists, and self-proclaimed pundits announce their annual predictions for the capital markets, blithely ignoring their own past history. Let’s take a look back to see how well…
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What Is The Yield Curve Really Telling Us Today?

The yield curve is the difference between yields (current interest rates) on ten-year U.S. treasury bonds as compared to two-year treasury bonds. Last year the yield curve inverted, meaning the yield on the shorter-maturity two-year bonds is higher than that for the longer bonds. This is an unusual situation since longer bonds – which are…
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Whose Fault Was The SVB Collapse?

Any disaster – be it a plane crash or a nuclear plant meltdown – is subsequently found to be caused by multiple failures. The Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) demise is no different. Who is to blame and what does this mean for the safety of your money in your bank or brokerage account? Here’s my…
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Why 2022 Was The Worst Investment Year In History

The year 2022 will go down in my book as the worst year in history for the U.S. investment markets. Why do I assert that so strongly? It’s because of what happened to bonds. The S&P 500 lost -18.1%, making 2022 merely the seventh worst year since 1926. But that wasn’t the main story. The…
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Words Matter

After the so-called Great Recession of 2008, the Federal Reserve (Fed) began buying up large quantities of bonds and other securities. This policy of quantitative easing (QE), as it became known, was part of the “pump priming” effort by the government to increase liquidity and stabilize the financial system in order to get the economy…
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Whose Fault Is Inflation?

With mid-term elections just around the corner, the Washington blame game is heating up. Republicans are asserting that the upsurge in inflation we’ve been living with since the beginning of this year is all due to the Democrats’ American Rescue Plan that pumped billions of unnecessary dollars into the economy. Democrats counter that the inflation…
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