The S&P 500 is up over 14% so far this year. But job growth is slowing and Trump tariffs are starting to drive up prices in numerous sectors. Is the economy heading for a fall? Are we nearing a market peak? Is this a good time to sell stocks?

Investors ask themselves these kinds of questions all the time. Especially when stock prices are at or near all-time highs. But rather than worrying about whether this is a good or bad time to do anything, let’s consider the consequence of making the wrong market timing decision.

The three worst days to have invested in the stock market over the past 25 years were March 24, 2000, October 9, 2007, and February 19, 2020. The first was the peak of the dot-com bubble, after which the S&P 500 declined by over 49% before starting its recovery. The Global Financial Crisis (or Great Recession, however you choose to call it) began on the second date, resulting in a 57% market drop and lasting for over five years before the S&P 500 was able to set a new high again. And I’m sure everyone remembers the Covid pandemic crash of 2020. Stock prices dropped 34% in a matter of days.

Let’s suppose that you are the worst market timer on the planet. You invested $100K in an S&P 500 mutual fund on March 24, 2000, watched the market chop your money in half, and became so discouraged that you stopped investing. That is, until 2007 came along, when you decided to take the plunge again. You added another $100K to your fund on October 9, only to watch the market collapse again. This time it took you almost 13 years before you could gather up the courage to invest again. Unfortunately your timing remained impeccably bad. You chose the peak before the Covid crash to put your last $100K into that faithful mutual fund. The subsequent market slump convinced you that you might as well give up investing. You consequently refused to look at any of your monthly statements or listen to any financial media, instead focusing all your interest and passion on your hobby of carving miniature automobiles out of soap bars.

Did your investment experience really turn out to be a disaster? If you had looked at your balance as of the end of September of this year, you might have been surprised to learn that you were now worth over $1 million.

How is this possible? It’s simply because market gains far exceed market losses over time. The longer you remain invested, the greater the return your portfolio will experience regardless of whatever happened when you started.

Would you have gained more by missing the worst days? Of course! But how can you identify them in advance? And even if you could, since stock prices tend to drop rapidly when downturns begin, how can you possibly manage to beat all the other investors to the exit door? And do it every time there’s a downturn?

This is not to suggest that buy and hold is necessarily the right strategy for investing. Things do change over time: the economy, interest rates, even your own goals, just to name a few. A successful investment strategy includes rebalancing and reallocating your investment portfolio periodically, not to mention tax-loss harvesting to optimize the amount of wealth you get to keep.

It isn’t about trying to time the market.

(Artie Green is founder of Cognizant Wealth Advisors dba Perigon Wealth Management, LLC, a registered investment advisor. For more information visit cognizantwealth.com. More information about the firm can also be found in its Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request by calling 877-977-2555 or by emailing compliance@perigonwealth.com).