In a word, I believe it’s extremely misguided. Here’s why. First, what problem is Trump trying to solve? The only justifications he has made are that (1) the U.S. is being economically “ripped off” through other countries’ tariffs, and (2) we need to bring manufacturing back onshore (presumably to increase jobs). Let’s tackle the rip-off…
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Voters have many reasons for choosing a particular candidate during elections. According to a post-election survey at navigatorresearch.org, one of the biggest reasons Trump won was voter dissatisfaction with the economy under Biden, particularly the higher prices consumers had to endure as a result of the Covid-induced inflation. They seemed to have expected that Biden/Harris…
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I have heard from several clients about how worried they are regarding the upcoming presidential election. I won’t delve into the politics; you can draw your own conclusions as to the consequences of one or the other candidate’s getting into or remaining in power. But as far as the stock market is concerned, I don’t…
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“It’s hard to make predictions. Especially about the future.” That’s one of my favorite aphorisms attributed to Yogi Berra. At the beginning of every year hundreds of economists, strategists, and self-proclaimed pundits announce their annual predictions for the capital markets, blithely ignoring their own past history. Let’s take a look back to see how well…
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The yield curve is the difference between yields (current interest rates) on ten-year U.S. treasury bonds as compared to two-year treasury bonds. Last year the yield curve inverted, meaning the yield on the shorter-maturity two-year bonds is higher than that for the longer bonds. This is an unusual situation since longer bonds – which are…
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Any disaster – be it a plane crash or a nuclear plant meltdown – is subsequently found to be caused by multiple failures. The Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) demise is no different. Who is to blame and what does this mean for the safety of your money in your bank or brokerage account? Here’s my…
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