Category: Economy

Does Yesterday’s Market Drop Portend a Recession?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced another jarring 800-point drop yesterday, roughly a 3% loss. The media attributes it to (1) the inversion of the yield curve and (2) the 0.1% decline in Germany’s GDP. Talk of an impending recession has ramped up. Most likely the questions on investors’ minds are “Is a recession…
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How Long Will The Next Recession Last?

Frequent readers of this blog know that I do not believe anyone can predict the future. So it might come as a surprise that, based on the title of this post, I appear to be doing just that. Well, I’m not. I’m just sharing some historical data to put business cycles in perspective. We are…
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Worried About Social Security Going Broke?

Concerns about Social Security (SS) running out of money pop up from time to time in the financial media. Beyond the headlines there are a number of misconceptions regarding what that really means. In this post I’ll explain what could happen and what the consequences might be. The situation is a lot less dire than…
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What To Do About Record High Trade Deficits?

The U.S. Commerce Department reported this month that the trade deficit for 2018 reached a record $891.3 billion and grew by almost 13% over 2017. As investors, what should we be taking away from this metric? The first question might be how did we get to this point? President Trump assured us one year ago…
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Will Trump’s Trade War Benefit The U.S.? (Part 2)

Part 1 addressed tariffs in general and why they are for the most part shortsighted. In this post I’ll briefly address Trump’s misconceptions about trade. The first fallacy is his apparent belief that bilateral trade with every country must be even. That is, if we run a trade deficit with a country like China, then…
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Will Trump’s Trade War Benefit The U.S.? (Part 1)

It’s difficult to explain a complex topic in a single post so I will attempt this in two parts. First, I’ll address tariffs in general and why they are for the most part shortsighted. In a following post I’ll address Trump’s misconceptions about trade. Let’s first try to understand why a country would impose restrictions…
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