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Beware of Overconfidence Bias

In 2006 James Montier, a researcher at the investment banking arm of Dresdner Bank, decided to test the behavioral biases of some 300 investment fund managers. One of the questions he asked was “Are you above average at your job?” Over 70% of the respondents answered yes. A number even included comments along the lines…
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There’s A Trust For Almost Any Situation

When it comes to estate planning, trusts are most commonly used for transferring assets after death to heirs or charities in order to avoid the cost, visibility, and potential delays associated with having only a will. But did you know that trusts can be used to transfer assets to others while you’re still alive? And…
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What to Do With A Leftover 529 Plan

Despite the burgeoning cost of higher education these days, some parents might still end up with unspent money in a 529 plan after their child has graduated from college. As you may know, if you withdraw the money for purposes other than for your child’s education, you have to pay taxes plus an additional 10%…
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Does Yesterday’s Market Drop Portend a Recession?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced another jarring 800-point drop yesterday, roughly a 3% loss. The media attributes it to (1) the inversion of the yield curve and (2) the 0.1% decline in Germany’s GDP. Talk of an impending recession has ramped up. Most likely the questions on investors’ minds are “Is a recession…
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How Long Will The Next Recession Last?

Frequent readers of this blog know that I do not believe anyone can predict the future. So it might come as a surprise that, based on the title of this post, I appear to be doing just that. Well, I’m not. I’m just sharing some historical data to put business cycles in perspective. We are…
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The Power of Hindsight

Do you wish you had invested in Cisco when it went public in 1990? Or Microsoft in 1986? What about Qualcomm, which is up almost 10,000% since its inception in 1991 (just a bit higher than the S&P 500’s paltry 600% equivalent gain). I can’t tell you how many times I hear that regretful refrain…
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