The capital markets are once again experiencing a bout of high volatility. Both stock and bond returns are negative year-to-date, with technology and other growth stocks leading the pack. Possibly investors are worried about the outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Or the longer-term likelihood of protracted inflation. Or interest rate increases. Or something…
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The U.S. Treasury bond yield curve is in the news again after briefly turning negative earlier this month. The financial media is trumpeting this event as an indicator that a recession will likely follow with a concomitant stock market decline. I suggest that this indicator is not useful in predicting either one. The yield curve…
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If someone were to ask you what you thought is the biggest risk you face with your investment portfolio, what would be your answer? Would it be the increased investment volatility we’ve been seeing this year? Or perhaps it’s the risk of investment losses? Maybe you’d say inflation since it has recently ramped up to…
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Have you ever looked at your brokerage or IRA account statement and discovered that the unrealized gain from one of the investments you thought was doing well is negative? Does that mean you’ve been losing money on that particular investment? Not necessarily. Here is a brief explanation of why we don’t use unrealized gains to…
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After living through one inconceivable event with worldwide repercussions (the COVID-19 pandemic), we now find ourselves facing another that was certainly on no one’s radar prior to 2022. How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine impact the spending power of our dollars as well as the value of our savings in the capital markets? I had…
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As of this writing the S&P 500 is currently down almost 6% since the start of the year, one of the worst January performances in a long time. Does this indicate 2022 is likely to be a terrible year for the stock market? Let’s start with a basic tenet: nobody can predict the future. There…
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