Category: Investment

How Bad Was The First Half Of 2022?

Pretty bad. I’m not referring to the war in Ukraine, or the surge in COVID infections, or supply chain disruptions, or the growing number of gun deaths in the U.S. I’m talking of course about the capital markets. The negative 21% performance of the S&P 500 during the six-month period ending on June 30th ranks…
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Why Some People Make Bad Financial Decisions

When I was a teenager I was a fan of science fiction. I recall reading one story about an attempted takeover of the world by a bad guy using warrior robots. His nefarious plan was thwarted by the good guy who discovered a way to cause the robots to self-destruct. The solution involved feeding conflicting…
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Some Reassurance For Volatile Times

The capital markets are once again experiencing a bout of high volatility. Both stock and bond returns are negative year-to-date, with technology and other growth stocks leading the pack. Possibly investors are worried about the outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Or the longer-term likelihood of protracted inflation. Or interest rate increases. Or something…
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Why The Yield Curve Does Not Predict A Market Downturn

The U.S. Treasury bond yield curve is in the news again after briefly turning negative earlier this month. The financial media is trumpeting this event as an indicator that a recession will likely follow with a concomitant stock market decline. I suggest that this indicator is not useful in predicting either one. The yield curve…
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The Biggest Risk You Face With Your Investments

If someone were to ask you what you thought is the biggest risk you face with your investment portfolio, what would be your answer? Would it be the increased investment volatility we’ve been seeing this year? Or perhaps it’s the risk of investment losses? Maybe you’d say inflation since it has recently ramped up to…
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Why Unrealized Gains Do Not Equal Returns

Have you ever looked at your brokerage or IRA account statement and discovered that the unrealized gain from one of the investments you thought was doing well is negative? Does that mean you’ve been losing money on that particular investment? Not necessarily. Here is a brief explanation of why we don’t use unrealized gains to…
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