“It’s hard to make predictions. Especially about the future.” That’s one of my favorite aphorisms attributed to Yogi Berra. At the beginning of every year hundreds of economists, strategists, and self-proclaimed pundits announce their annual predictions for the capital markets, blithely ignoring their own past history. Let’s take a look back to see how well…
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Although inflation has been mitigated over the last couple of years, it’s still on the minds of many investors. Should we avoid stocks when inflation is high? Can inflation be used for market timing in some way? Unfortunately the answer is “no” in both cases. There is no demonstrable connection between periods of high inflation…
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A reader writes: Now that bonds are yielding over 5%, can I fund my retirement just from the interest? This is a great question that goes to the heart of retirement planning strategies. The first requirement is that you have managed to save enough money. If you expect to spend $100K per year in retirement,…
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Investing involves volatility. The higher the expected return, the greater the volatility. This is axiomatic. You can’t avoid it but you can mitigate it, as I wrote in a previous column. And it turns out that reducing volatility has a number of benefits for investors. First, there’s what’s known as volatility drag. This is a…
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That doesn’t sound right, does it? Who would ever want to underperform the stock market? Shouldn’t the goal be to consistently beat the market? That would be great, but how easy is it to do? S&P Global produces an annual report called SPIVA (https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/spiva/spiva-us-mid-year-2023.pdf) which compares how actively managed funds – those that attempt to…
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The yield curve is the difference between yields (current interest rates) on ten-year U.S. treasury bonds as compared to two-year treasury bonds. Last year the yield curve inverted, meaning the yield on the shorter-maturity two-year bonds is higher than that for the longer bonds. This is an unusual situation since longer bonds – which are…
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