Inflation is in the news again after a long hiatus. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in May that the broad inflation rate rose 4.2% over the past 12 months, the largest increase since 2008. Exactly what is inflation, and how does it impact investments? Simply put, inflation (and its negative twin deflation) is…
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David Leonhardt, a reporter at the New York Times, recently reported on research from two economists at Princeton University, Alan Blinder and Mark Watson. The two researchers statistically compared economic performance under all American presidents since Harry Truman and found that growth was better under Democrats than under Republicans, regardless of whatever measure was used.…
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Last week the U.S. Commerce Department reported that its estimate of the third quarter’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increase over Q2 was an annualized 33%. One immediate and unsurprising outcome was a slew of pre-election ads by Donald Trump touting his economic prowess. Putting aside the fact that it’s just an estimate that will…
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Does it seem to you that the stock market is totally disconnected from the reality of the economy? Business news has been as bad as it gets. The number of unemployed workers has reached record-setting levels while GDP has declined to levels not seen since the 1930s. Federal debt has increased by over $3 trillion.…
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There are really two questions here. The first is whether or not the cost of the CARES Act and the other federal government rescue/stimulus spending packages could drive the U.S. government into bankruptcy. The second concerns the impact on our children and grandchildren of the mountain of federal debt that will be left to them.…
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It’s January and my email inbox is once again flooded with capital market predictions for 2020. Looking back at the “expert” predictions for 2019 made last January, the majority as usual turned out to be wrong. Rather than sharing those predictions that were most egregious (which would be more fun than educational), I thought this…
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